Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 3.949103 4.302858 4.694038 5.162726 5.714542 6.350775 7.150711
2025-01-12 3.400786 3.845504 4.370161 5.047449 5.918686 7.032700 8.621991
2025-01-19 3.024177 3.496822 4.077078 4.863021 5.936802 7.416982 9.750382
2025-01-26 2.860339 3.374879 4.030150 4.959315 6.307241 8.318290 11.869889
2025-02-02 2.771354 3.331149 4.068864 5.162227 6.847145 9.582554 15.097731
2025-02-09 2.671122 3.258946 4.055507 5.280769 7.271403 10.766136 18.830408
2025-02-16 2.531840 3.120324 3.933119 5.216241 7.381925 11.416119 21.824081
2025-02-23 2.417383 3.006413 3.834139 5.172556 7.514747 12.140798 25.591998
2025-03-02 2.313892 2.900211 3.736537 5.117686 7.614693 12.824684 29.940698
2025-03-09 2.222243 2.804757 3.646881 5.064588 7.706630 13.519545 35.244825
2025-03-16 2.150456 2.733418 3.587859 5.055315 7.879618 14.468326 43.295141
2025-03-23 2.106565 2.699900 3.583757 5.138487 8.251558 16.082322 59.320036
2025-03-30 2.022848 2.604351 3.478333 5.036299 8.226866 16.619315 70.929341
2025-04-06 1.943501 2.511858 3.372617 4.924756 8.166712 17.045267 84.506911
2025-04-13 1.856464 2.404155 3.236898 4.747553 7.935843 16.859176 91.401308
2025-04-20 1.830028 2.387113 3.246419 4.840053 8.336977 18.985560 157.739830
2025-04-27 1.824316 2.401105 3.306964 5.034825 9.025216 22.710980 530.588010
2025-05-04 1.803520 2.390359 3.325102 5.148516 9.540960 26.291406 53127.037605
2025-05-11 1.754001 2.332203 3.259217 5.086637 9.578371 27.651061 NaN
2025-05-18 1.710816 2.282453 3.205257 5.044734 9.665219 29.405998 NaN
2025-05-25 1.668421 2.232418 3.148355 4.992089 9.713647 31.042088 NaN
2025-06-01 1.628651 2.185224 3.094234 4.941128 9.759743 32.777163 NaN
2025-06-08 1.597500 2.150845 3.061032 4.932228 9.932524 35.681729 NaN